SRINAGAR: As Jammu and Kashmir’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.5, well below the replacement level of 2.1, the decline is being viewed by some outside J&K as a significant social and public health indicator.Political leaders and health professionals in J&K have described the trend as alarming, warning of potentially serious demographic and economic consequences.The TFR details came to fore after the Department-related Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs, headed by Dr. Radha Mohan Das Agrawal, presented its 260th report in Parliament on August 7. The report, titled “Review of Administrative Governance, Socio-Economic Development and Internal Security in the UT of Jammu & Kashmir; and Border Security Management and Preparedness in the UT of Ladakh,” stated that there is improvement in maternal and reproductive health indicators in the Union Territory.The committee recorded a TFR of 1.5, below the national average and said it reflected sustained progress in public health.“The Committee commends the Administration for strengthening maternal and child healthcare services, achieving near-universal institutional deliveries, expanding access to family planning services, promoting female literacy and empowering frontline health workers, especially ASHAs and ANMs, whose contribution to community healthcare has been commendable,” the report said.“The Committee recommends that these gains be sustained through continued emphasis on adolescent health, women’s education and empowerment, maternal nutrition, reproductive health awareness and universal access to quality maternal healthcare and family planning services, particularly in tribal, border and other underserved regions,” the report said.Former minister and PDP leader Naeem Akhtar said though it punctures the propaganda against Muslims that are the highest “breeders in India” at the same time, for a place like Kashmir, this is alarming.“We must have at least a decent replacement level. In my opinion, the government should incentivise families to have at least two children if we do not want ethnic Kashmiris to disappear one day at this rate,” Akhtar said.He said given the BJP government’s post-2019 efforts after abrogation of Article 370 to bring about demographic change in J&K, the community itself has to awaken to this fact. “In the overall development of Jammu and Kashmir, there is so much that the region has achieved that has not been spoken about or even mentioned but only this one thing was mentioned which has huge consequences for demography of this place,” he added.Dr Syed Masuma Rizvi, a professor of obstetrics and gynaecology at Government Medical College Srinagar, described the trend as alarming and called for a multidisciplinary response involving the government, health sector and communities to address it.She warned that if the trend continues for decades, it could have far-reaching consequences for the region’s population.“Maintaining fertility at the replacement level is important. Population control is important when fertility is above the replacement level, but when it falls below replacement, it is not a positive development. It can become a disaster,” she said.Elaborating on the possible consequences, Prof Rizvi asked, “If this trend continues, we could have an ageing population in the near future, but where will the younger population come from? Other countries are already facing the consequences including pressure on health care and social security systems.”“It will also put a burden on hospitals and resources,” Prof Rizvi said. “An ageing population with a shrinking younger workforce will create an economic burden, increase demand for social services and drain resources.” She also advocated measures to encourage early marriage and larger families, including incentives for couples to have three or four children.BJP legislator RS Pathania said the issue should not be viewed through a political lens, but from the perspective of its health and economic implications. He said there is a need to strengthen health care delivery in remote areas of Jammu and Kashmir particularly maternal and child health services including antenatal and prenatal care. He said improving access to these services was essential to address maternal and infant mortality and the broader demographic challenges arising from declining fertility.In a January 2026 paper titled “Declining Fertility in Kashmir: Magnitude, Causes, and Implications,” Dr. Syed Amin Tabish identified late marriages, voluntary bachelorhood, rising divorce rates, socioeconomic pressures, stress and infertility among the factors contributing to the decline in Kashmir.The consequences, he said, could include a shrinking youth population, an ageing demographic, a reduced workforce and challenges to cultural continuity and economic growth.“In sum, late marriages, bachelorhood, and divorce are indeed linked to Kashmir’s fertility decline, compounding structural issues of health and economy. Facing this challenge requires a balanced approach—respecting individual choices while promoting sustainable demographic health,” Dr Amin’s paper reads.“Incentivize earlier marriages through community awareness and financial support schemes, since delayed marriages and bachelorhood are major drivers of decline. National policies focus more on reducing early marriages; in Kashmir, the challenge is the opposite—encouraging timely unions,” the paper said.In a conference last month on the falling fertility rate, doctors in Kashmir had warned that if it continues at this rate there would be difficulty to find ethnic Kashmiri in the next 50 years.
