India’s exports to China rose nearly 40% in the five months through August, with electronics and engineering goods emerging as key drivers, even as the bilateral trade relationship remains heavily tilted in Beijing’s favour, according to an analysis of government data cited by Bloomberg News.The increase comes as Indian manufacturers seek a larger role in global supply chains, while New Delhi and Beijing work to repair ties after relations fell to a multi-decade low.The shift also comes amid changes in global trade conditions, including US tariff policies.Electronics exports have been a major contributor to the recent increase. Indian shipments to China of electronics rose more than 15% in the April-August period from a year earlier, according to the report.Industry executives said demand linked to the global expansion of artificial intelligence and data centres was contributing to the growth.“The surge in exports to China is partly driven by pressure on suppliers to meet the demand for high-end equipment required for AI-related products and as data centers proliferate,” Rajoo Goel, secretary general of the Electronic Industries Association of India, said. “This has encouraged exports of electronics from India to China.”The growth follows a sharp increase in electronics shipments in the previous fiscal year. India’s exports of electronics to China tripled to $3.18 billion in the year ended March, with printed circuit board assemblies, smartphones, display modules and telecom equipment among the products driving the increase.
Engineering goods also see growth
The increase has not been limited to electronics. Engineering exports to China rose about 21% in the April-August period from a year earlier, according to exporters. The growth included machinery and parts, auto components and hand tools.Pankaj Mohindroo, chairman of the Indian Cellular and Electronics Association, said the increase showed that Indian manufacturing was gaining credibility in global value chains.“It shows that Indian manufacturing is beginning to win credibility in one of the world’s most competitive global value chains,” he said, as quoted by Bloomberg.Arun Kumar Garodia, managing director at Corona Steel Industry, said the increase in exports, although still small, suggested that China may be becoming more receptive to Indian goods in the current geopolitical environment.India’s exports to China had also recorded strong growth in the broader April-August period.According to commerce ministry data, merchandise exports rose 38.71% to $9.61 billion, from $6.93 billion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.Engineering goods accounted for 20.73% of the export growth to China, followed by electronic goods at 15.4%, petroleum products at 13.55%, organic and inorganic chemicals at 10.53% and iron ore at 9.97%, according to the commerce ministry data.
Trade deficit remains large
Despite the increase in exports, China remains a relatively small destination for Indian goods. China accounted for 4.4% of India’s exports in the year ended March, up from just over 3% a year earlier. The US, India’s biggest export market, accounted for almost a fifth.The increase has also done little to narrow India’s large trade imbalance with China. India imported $131.6 billion worth of Chinese goods in the year ended March, accounting for almost 17% of its total imports and far exceeding the value of its exports to China.A separate study by Koan Advisory Group and the Institute of Chinese Studies, cited by news agency ANI, put India’s trade deficit with China at $112.1 billion in 2025-26.Electrical machinery and electronic equipment accounted for $43.1 billion, or about 38%, of that gap.The study also found that China accounted for at least 80% of India’s imports across 71 eight-digit tariff lines in 2025-26, highlighting the depth of China’s role in several electronics and component supply chains.
Questions over electronics trade data
There is some uncertainty over the precise composition of the recent increase in electronics exports.Chinese customs data do not show a comparable increase in printed circuit boards arriving from India, with much of the rise instead recorded under smartphones and other telecom products.Industry executives told Bloomberg News that differences in the way India and China classify goods could make it difficult to establish precisely what is driving the increase.Still, exporters expect shipments to China to continue growing.“The task now is to sustain these exports and expand across components, sub-assemblies and finished products, while deepening Indian design and component capabilities,” Mohindroo said.The increase in exports comes alongside renewed India-China engagement on trade issues. commerce secretary Rajesh Agrawal said the two countries were looking at the structural trade imbalance, supply-chain issues and ways to build trust in bilateral trade.“These are the initial discussions wherein both sides, as leaders have already guided, that both sides should work together to address each other’s concerns in the trade space,” Agrawal said.The recent export growth therefore comes alongside a continuing gap in the overall trade relationship, with Indian shipments gaining in areas such as electronics and engineering goods while imports from China remain substantially larger.
